The 2020 Presidential Election promises to be one of the most contested elections in US history. According to The New York Times, 25 candidates (23 Democrats and 2 Republicans) are already running for the highest elected office in the United States. If you’re curious about the other Republican candidate in addition to Donald Trump that is running, it’s none other than libertarian Bill Weld – about as opposite to Trump a candidate can get in terms of trade policy. This may prove more harmful to the Democrat cause within the historic blue-collar base which has been the largest beneficiary of low unemployment and Trump’s approach to trade. From a quantitative perspective, the actual numbers speak to Trump’s comparative success in recent quarters and the impact of his controversial trade policies on the overall economy. From October … [Read more...] about The Coming Presidential Election: More Economic and Trade Debate Needed
Industry News
The Final Burial of Democracy in Hong Kong?
Over two decades ago, I hired an old friend from prep school to lead the Hong Kong office of a fast-growing sourcing tech company I worked for. A Westerner with strong Chinese language skills and a graduate student in Asian history, he took a somewhat eccentric British pride in riding his old Triumph motorcycle around the streets of Hong Kong, the loud bike harkening back to the old days of British rule every time it backfired, perhaps. There is no rumble of that old motorbike anymore. While the latest tariff waves and currency devaluation rumbles have captured the U.S. and China headlines of late – as the overall situation appears to continue to deteriorate, perhaps for the better, perhaps for the worse – what we find just as fascinating and as important to understand China’s ambitions is its continued crackdown on the last … [Read more...] about The Final Burial of Democracy in Hong Kong?
China Takes a Beating in Round 1 of the Trade War
Summer vacations provide a time for rest and reflection. While relaxing in the sun in August, we could not help but reflect on a critically important piece of business, economic and policy news you won’t often see reported in the mainstream press. What is this headline? China is losing the first salvo of the trade war with the US. While no one – except perhaps President Trump himself – believes that trade wars are “easy” to win, the victor of round 1 appears hard to dispute. Regardless of where you sit – either by industry or manufacturing supply chain tier – it’s clear that on an overall economic basis, China is taking a greater beating than the US. According to Trading Economics, the Caixin China’s Manufacturing PMI (formerly the HSBC PMI), “fell to an eight-month low of 50.8 in July of 2018 from 51.0” and both output and new … [Read more...] about China Takes a Beating in Round 1 of the Trade War
Illinois Burdens Manufacturers With Its Latest Get out of Debt Plan
Governing Illinois, where Surplus Record is located, is a thankless job. Perhaps that is why at the end of his term, J.B. Pritzker will have been the second billionaire in a row to attempt to do right by his state. And it won’t be easy. Truth in Accounting, a non-profit, ran a calculation in 2018 suggesting that the average Chicago resident, on a per capita basis, is on the hook for nearly $130K in city and state debt. What got the state (and city) into this mess was, in large part, Springfield, the state capital, rubber stamping both budgets and pension schemes for decades without any way to pay for them short of issuing debt. In other words, the checkbook was open, but there was no money in the bank account — except an IOU tucked away in a safe deposit box. The bad news for those governing Illinois is that residents not only can … [Read more...] about Illinois Burdens Manufacturers With Its Latest Get out of Debt Plan
Unraveling the Complexities: China & US Relations
If one subscribes to the narrative as presented by media headlines, it would appear that the relationship between China and the US is languishing at an all-time low. Some of this may simply be misunderstanding due to a lack of direct dialogue. For example, evidence suggests the “spy balloons” were likely anything but after further examination, despite US headlines during the crisis that stoked serious vitriol within the Chinese politburo initially, without functional relations between the countries to deescalate the situation. And of course issues concerning Taiwanese sovereignty and the South China Sea continue to reach potential flashpoints on a weekly basis. Nevertheless, beneath the frosty rapport between the US and China lies a host of internal challenges within China itself — separate from its relations with the West. China is … [Read more...] about Unraveling the Complexities: China & US Relations
