October 2025 – The Great Gamble on U.S. AI Chipmaking

Over the past two years, the United States has gone all-in on reshoring semiconductor manufacturing, with a particular focus on the chips that power artificial intelligence. More than $500 billion in private sector commitments have been announced since the passage of the CHIPS Act, and fabs are springing up from Arizona to New York. TSMC’s Arizona “gigafab” complex alone is slated to host up to six facilities over the next decade. Nvidia just backed Intel with a $5 billion investment, betting on a future where U.S. chip capacity can rival Asia’s dominance.

For now, though, it remains just that… a bet. Building fabs isn’t like flipping a switch. Advanced facilities take years to complete, rely on scarce skilled labor, and require vast amounts of power, water, and specialized equipment. Even as groundbreaking ceremonies grab headlines, companies wrestle with construction delays, permitting bottlenecks, and the daunting costs of sourcing extreme ultraviolet lithography machines, cleanroom systems, and support infrastructure.

At the same time, chip demand is at an all-time high. Data centers are racing to train and run larger AI models, and cloud providers are desperate for chips optimized for inference workloads. That surge in demand is what keeps the investment taps flowing. But margins are risky. PC and mobile markets remain sluggish, meaning chipmakers are leaning heavily on AI-driven growth to justify the billions they’re spending today.

Export controls add another layer of uncertainty. The U.S. has tightened restrictions on which chips can be sold abroad, particularly to China, reshaping global trade flows. That policy may bolster domestic capacity, but it also risks cutting U.S. firms off from a major revenue stream. For equipment suppliers, this tug-of-war means sudden surges in demand from some regions and surprising gluts in others.

For Surplus Record readers, the opportunity lies in the machinery behind the headlines. These fabs require vacuum pumps, chillers, filtration systems, HVAC units, power distribution gear, transformers, generators, breakers, and more. As fabs ramp up, the turnover of equipment whether from upgrades, overruns, or secondary market sourcing will grow. And when projects run into delays or strategic pivots, surplus flows even faster.

The gamble is clear: if AI demand keeps climbing, today’s massive bets on U.S. chipmaking will look visionary. If growth slows, the industry could find itself awash in overcapacity and idle machines. Either way, the ripple effects will reach equipment buyers and sellers. History tells us that where there is industrial expansion, there is opportunity in surplus!
The fabs may take years to come online, but the gamble is already reshaping the landscape. As always, Surplus Record will be here connecting those shifts to our marketplace.