You’ll notice the special new shiny cover the SR Catalog received this month! This is in celebration of the upcoming 100th year of Surplus Record printed catalogs, as we move forward into 2024. Our actual 100-year anniversary is in November 2024, so keep an eye out for a special edition that month!
While we generally focus on a variety of topics, this edition takes a special look at a rapidly evolving sector in the automotive industry. This month, we turn our attention to a technology that many had written off in recent years but is now surging: hybrid vehicles.
Remember the humble first-generation Toyota Prius? Originally driven primarily by environmental enthusiasts and tech- geeks (apologies for the generalization), the Toyota Prius ushered in a new era of hybrid drivetrains featuring gas and electric capabilities. Today’s market for EVs (including the Prius, which, in its current form, looks fantastic and is something we’d actually buy) has evolved dramatically since the first generation Prius was launched in the US over two decades ago.
In total, the global hybrid car market is forecasted to grow from 1.2 million annual units (2015 shipments) to 5.4 million units in 2025. In North America, the US Department of Transportation suggests that in 2021 (the last year with full government data available), 798,992 hybrid vehicles and 173,457 plug-in hybrids were sold. These numbers were way up from 2020 (455,067 and 69,049 units, respectively).
According to CNBC and Edmunds, hybrids have become so popular in fact that 2023 sales are outpacing electric vehicles. Specifically, “HEVs accounted for 8.3% of U.S. car sales, about 1.2 million vehicles sold, through November of this year. That share is up 2.8 percentage points compared with total sales last year.”
In comparison, “EVs made up 6.9% of sales heading into December, or roughly 976,560 units, up 1.7 percentage points compared with total sales last year. Sales of plug-in hybrid electric vehicles, or PHEVs, accounted for only 1% of U.S. sales through November.”
Certain automakers are more heavily invested in hybrid drivetrains. According to a recent Morgan Stanley report, Toyota, Honda, Hyundai, and Kia account for “9 out of 10 hybrid sales in the U.S.” and that “representatives for those automakers said they are actively attempting to increase production and sales of hybrid vehicles in the U.S.” to meet demand.
And for good reason.
Hybrids get (for the most part) fantastic economy without any of the “battery anxiety” of running out of energy on the road of traditional EVs, especially in climates and driving conditions (e.g., cold) where published range is far more than most drivers will ever realize. Hybrids have also become increasingly economical (compared to gas vehicles) to the point that the only 2024 Toyota Camry available (including base models starting at ~$26K) will be hybrid-powered vehicles expected to achieve 50+ MPG.
A few years back, no one (including the US Federal government which has mandated increasingly tough fuel economy standards for new vehicle sales which makes it almost impossible for manufacturers not to sell nearly all EVs by the mid-2030s unless published standards are changed) would have bet on the humble hybrid becoming so popular.
In fact, for many in the government who wanted a pure EV revolution, this is perhaps a “worst case scenario” as EV sales slump (and as electric cars pile up on dealer lots) alongside increased hybrid demand. But perhaps this is really just the invisible hand (or invisible drivetrain, if you will), speaking for the broader automotive market itself.
As for us, if we had our pick, we’d take the 2024 Chevy Corvette E-Ray Hybrid, which industry observers note is designed for speed, not just efficiency (even though it gets 24 MPG on the highway). With a top speed of 183 (and 0-60 times of 2.5 seconds), who could have guessed that the original slow, anti-hipster Prius would have evolved into something so great?
